Spanish Flu Pandemic 1919
Covid Pandemic 2020
Newspaper from 1929 Stock Market Crash
Stock market returns between 1929 and 2025
If you invested $100000 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 1929, you would have about $889,768,840.09 at the end of 2025, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 889,668.84%, or 9.83% per year. This lump-sum investment beats inflation during this period for an inflation-adjusted return of about 47,291.33% cumulatively, or 6.56% per year.
Stock market returns between 1929 and 1941
If you invested $100000 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 1929, you would have about $74,069.05 at the end of 1941, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of -25.93%, or -2.28% per year. This lump-sum investment does not beat inflation during this period, for an inflation-adjusted return of -13.84% cumulatively, or -1.14% per year.
Stock market returns between 2000 and 2011
If you invested $100000 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2000, you would have about $113,491.54 at the end of 2011, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 13.49%, or 1.06% per year. This lump-sum investment does not beat inflation during this period, for an inflation-adjusted return of -13.12% cumulatively, or -1.16% per year.
Stock market returns between 2012 and 2025
If you invested $100000 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2012, you would have about $675,170.97 at the end of 2025, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 575.17%, or 14.62% per year. This lump-sum investment beats inflation during this period for an inflation-adjusted return of about 382.84% cumulatively, or 11.90% per year.
Source: https://www.officialdata.org/
Correlation of Stock and Bond Markets
Historically the returns from stocks and bonds have been negatively correlated; when one goes up, the other goes down, and vise versa. The negative correlation between the two has played a key role in the construction of diversified portfolios to reduce portfolio risks and limit losses in times of market distress. That was not the case in 2022, a vary rare occurrence as both the equity and the debt markets lost considerable value. Looking at annual returns, there have been only 2 other calendar years when both stocks and bonds had losing years: 1931 and 1969.
The decades following 1931 and 1969 were very challenging economic times for our country.
Al Capone's soup kitchen offering free soup, coffee, and doughnuts to the unemployed during the Great Depression
Oil and Energy Crisis of the 1970s
Stock market returns between 2023 and 2025
If you invested $1000000 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2023, you would have about $1,804,721.20 at the end of 2025, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 80.47%, or 21.75% per year. This lump-sum investment beats inflation during this period for an inflation-adjusted return of about 71.28% cumulatively, or 19.65% per year. Source: https://www.officialdata.org/
Why should the decade following 2022 be any different?
"We learn from history that we learn nothing from history."
George Bernard Shaw